The Defence Budget and Trident

Trident missile been fired

George Osborne has made it very clear that the budget for the Trident will have to come from the already overspent MoD budget. This means Dr Liam Fox has to find a huge amount of money in the defence budget, this runs a risk of putting the already strained resources in Afghanistan. One big debate is do we replace Trident or retire it when it comes to its end of life.

The previous major 2 deployments by British Armed Forces have been in a Counter-Insurgency or COIN role. Which have been infantry lead with ground air support only. This is where operations by submarines have seen a VERY limited role. Royal Navy ships were part of the beginning of Operation Telic (the MoD name for the British deployment to Afghanistan) and fired Tomahawk cruise missiles into Afghanistan, however as Afghanistan is a landlocked country have no role or at least a limited role in Afghanistan. We will not be handing over security to the Afghans until 2014 and it is unknown when we will completely withdraw from the country.

However, it does not mean that next year, or in 10 years time Britain will still be only involved in COIN there are other threats including Islamist in Pakistan gaining control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons where again a nuclear deterrent would be necessarily. However, the MoD cannot at the moment afford to replace Trident, but Trident doesn't have to be the only type nuclear deterrent.

Minuteman missile been test fired

Cheaper land-based missiles on the British isles or our existing overseas territories such as the Falklands, Diego Garcia. These would be cheaper as there would not be a need to build, fuel and maintain the expensive missiles. The Americans already have a land-based nuclear deterrent in the Minuteman system in use. Another alternative could be to have air-based systems where a missile is fired from a large bomber, however this would require the development of a new bomber capable of firing such missiles.

My concern however is that the Chancellor and the Defence Secretary are forgetting or at least not trying to think about one thing, if he makes the wrong decision, it will cost british lives. If they move Britain away from been able of operating in environments like Afghanistan and Iraq and another COIN operation arises the armed forces will have to play catch up yet again but if it move the armed forces towards a expeditionary COIN op focused military and a nuclear power begins to threaten Britain it will once again be very difficult to defend british soil.